Picture Taken at the ELIA, Belgium, National Control Center showing the forecaster error at the first hour forecasted on March 25, 2005. The error of 18 MW represents approximately 0.2% of the system load. [From left: Dr. Atif Debs, DSI, Mr. Jozef van Hecke, ELIA and David Becker, EPRI].
The EPRI Artificial Neural Network Short-Term Load Forecaster (ANNSTLF) was delivered by DSI thru EPRI Worldwide (EPRIWW) to two major utilities, ESKOM, South Africa and ELIA, Belgium; making both as “firsts” for this products and for the continents of Africa and Europe, respectively. In both cases, Dr. Debs provided a full one week of training to the clients’ staff. He was accompanied by Mr. David Becker, the EPRI ANNSTLF Project Manager who coordinated both projects.
In the ESKOM case the delivery of ANNSTLF was for one of the 7 regions in South Africa. Based on the encouraging results with the Eastern Region, it is expected that all of the remaining regions plus the national-level “region” will use ANNSTLF as their forecaster of choice.
In the ELIA, Belgium, case, the delivery was for the national Transmission System Operator (TSO) center in Linkebeek, Belgium near Brussels. For the first time, the delivery was for a fully automated forecaster that operates on half hour intervals.
The table below provides information on forecaster accuracy. In the picture taken at the ELIA control center, the first hour forecasted from the day before showed an error of 18 MW (Approximately 0.2%) which we believe was a good sign!
| Company | Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE) ALL Hours for 2004 | Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE) Peak Hours for 2004 |
| ESKOM (Eastern Region) | 1.52% | 1.45% |
| ELIA | 1.69% | 1.47% |
Hands-On “Challenge of Emergency Operations Training” Series Carried out in Chicago, Illinois
The two modules of the series (Emergency Operations Under Stress (Module A) and System Restoration Under Stress (Module B) were carried out at the Allerton Crowne Plaza, Chicago, Illinois in early March 2005. Recipients received a total 0f 32 CEH’s (NERC Continuing Education Hours) each for participating in the series. The results of this offering had been vary valuable to the participants (all certified dispatchers) with many commenting, “… the best training program I ever had ..” Participant feedback was very valuable leading to improvements in the series with even more time on hands-on exercises and a refocusing of the lecture parts.
The DSI State estimator (DSI-SE™) Is Integrated with the EPRI OTS and EPRI STEMS
The DSI State Estimator (DSI-SE™) was integrated to the EPRI-OTS via a Common Information Model (CIM) interface. This program which was based mainly on Dr. Debs’ research in the state estimation and bas-data detection areas (See Chapter 8 of Dr. Debs’ book, “Modern Power Systems Control & Operation: A Study of Real-Time Control of Power Systems). The implementation of the software was carried out by Dr. Charles Hansen, Senior Consultant, DSI. This version of the OTS will allow users to work in a realistic environment whereby they will be exposed to the estimated values of measurements and state variables. Effort is underway to develop training scenarios using this new capability and also for training users on the state estimation application in the control center. The DSI-SE is capable of detecting and correcting multiple bad data points in the system and uses a very robust algorithm for the estimation process. For info contact Dr. Debs directly at adebs@dsipower.com
EPRI OTS Service Center Contract for 2005 focuses on Visualization and Training Scenarios
The 9th renewal of the EPRI-OTS Service Center contract with EPRI has some new challenging features. The first one is the interfacing of EPRI’s CAR (Community Activity Room) visualization software with the OTS via a CIM interface. The work will involve an additional interfacing with the DSI-OPF™ (Interior-Point Method Optimal Power Flow by DSI). The result will be a capability to allow users to visualize the security/reliability level of the system and to quickly determine the type and level of insecurity and the control actions to be undertaken. Furthermore, the contract calls for expanded activities in developing, implementing and testing of various scenarios for dispatcher training. Of course, should additional funding be provided, then more features can be added to an already rich set of capabilities in the EPRI-OTS. For more info on the OTS itself, visit www.epriots.com .